Amid Trump’s 50% Tariffs, India to Boost Russian Oil Imports in September

Even as US President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50%, citing New Delhi’s heavy reliance on Moscow’s crude, India is preparing to step up imports of Russian oil in September, Reuters reported.

Despite mounting pressure from Washington, Indian refiners are expected to boost purchases by 10%-20% from August levels, translating to an additional 150,000–300,000 barrels per day, the report stated.

India’s two biggest buyers of Russian oil, Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy, are yet to comment on their September plans.

Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, India has emerged as one of the biggest buyers of Russian crude after Moscow was cut off from Western markets. By mid-2024, India was importing 1.5–1.6 million barrels per day of Russian oil, meeting nearly 40% of its crude demand.

Available data shows India bought an average of 1.5 million bpd in the first 20 days of August, steady with July but slightly below earlier levels.

The report highlighted that India’s dependence on discounted Russian crude stems from the higher cost of OPEC supplies, though the cartel’s share of Indian imports saw a mild rebound in 2024 after an eight-year slide. It also noted that Russia has extra crude for export in September due to refinery outages curbing its domestic fuel output.

Russian suppliers are now offering September-loading Urals crude at discounts of $2–$3 per barrel to dated Brent, wider than August’s $1.50 discount — the narrowest since 2022.

Trump had first imposed 25% reciprocal tariffs on India on August 7, alongside duties on nearly 70 countries. He later raised the levy to 50%, blaming India’s reliance on Russian crude and even accusing New Delhi of indirectly funding the Ukraine war.

In response, India is seeking talks with Washington to resolve the issue. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has continued diplomatic outreach, including a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Analysts argue that India is unlikely to halt Russian imports unless a global ban is enforced. A sharp cut in purchases could remove nearly 1 million bpd from world supply, driving prices close to $100 a barrel. Such a move would severely impact Moscow, as India’s demand remains critical for sustaining Russia’s export volumes and wartime revenues.

Citing CLSA, the report warned that a sudden halt to India’s imports could erase 1 million bpd from global markets, sparking a sharp price spike to nearly $100 a barrel.