West Bengal Exit Poll Results 2026: BJP vs TMC Seat Predictions

As voting concludes in West Bengal, exit poll predictions have started pouring in, offering an early look at how the fiercely contested Assembly election might unfold. The numbers released by various agencies suggest a divided outlook, with no clear consensus on the winner.

The election has largely been a direct contest between the ruling Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee and the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, with smaller alliances playing a limited role.

Conflicting Exit Poll Numbers

Different polling agencies have presented sharply contrasting seat projections for the 294-member Assembly, where 148 seats are required to form the government.

• Some agencies such as Matrize and P-Marq indicate an advantage for the BJP, with estimates ranging between 146 and 175 seats
• Poll Diary also suggests a BJP lead, projecting 142 to 171 seats
• On the other hand, Peoples Pulse forecasts a strong win for the TMC, giving it 177 to 187 seats, while placing BJP between 95 and 110 seats
• Janmat Poll goes even further, predicting a landslide for TMC with 195 to 205 seats
• Praja Poll, however, flips the trend by projecting a decisive BJP victory with 178 to 208 seats

With such wide variations, the overall picture remains unclear, pointing towards either a close contest or sharply different regional outcomes.

Poll of Polls: Tight Race Likely

Looking at the broader trend across surveys, the contest appears highly competitive. While a few pollsters predict a clear winner, most indicate a narrow margin between the two major parties, raising the possibility of a closely fought result.

Voting Phases and Turnout

The election was conducted in two phases:

• First phase covered 152 constituencies on April 23
• Second phase concluded with voting in 142 seats

Voter turnout remained notably high, crossing 93% in some areas, reflecting strong public participation.

Key Issues in the Election

The 2026 Assembly election in West Bengal was marked by intense campaigning and several major issues, including:

• Focus on women voters and welfare schemes
• Regional identity and “Bengali pride” narratives
• Influence of the Matua community vote
• Debate over voter list revisions during the Special Intensive Revision process

Lessons from 2021 Exit Polls

Exit polls in the previous 2021 election had predicted a tight race. However, the final results turned out very differently, with the TMC securing a landslide victory by winning 215 seats, while the BJP managed 77 seats.

This history highlights the uncertainty associated with exit polls and the possibility of surprises on counting day.

Final Word

While exit poll figures provide an early indication, they are not always accurate. The actual outcome of the West Bengal Assembly elections will only be confirmed when votes are counted on May 4.

Also read: Is Vijay the Next GOAT of Tamil Nadu Politics After MGR and Jayalalithaa?