Holiday Shopping Trends 2025: Gift Cards, Online Purchases, and Retail Therapy

This holiday season, consumers are facing a mix of challenges—from a cooling job market and ongoing tariff concerns to a general decline in confidence. While these factors may prompt shoppers to be more cautious, experts say they won’t stop households from spending altogether. In fact, the very uneasiness driving consumer caution may also encourage spending, as many look for comfort and a sense of normalcy. Holiday sales are forecast to grow between 3.5% and 4.0% compared to last year.

Tariffs Impact Holiday Prices
Shoppers should expect higher prices this year. Although tariffs have so far had a limited effect on overall inflation, gifts and holiday-related services are likely to cost more. Rising prices may limit the amount consumers can spend on traditional presents, potentially shifting demand toward alternatives like gift certificates, which could see a spike in popularity. Gift cards may also provide an early boost to sales in 2026 when they are redeemed.

Earlier Purchases Affect Holiday Spending
Some consumers pulled forward purchases earlier in the year due to concerns about rising prices. Combined with the ongoing trend toward online shopping, this shift means some households may have already spent on discretionary goods, potentially reducing their holiday budgets.

Job Market Softening, Borrowing on the Rise
Worries over job prospects continue to influence spending. While most working-age Americans are still employed, wage growth is weaker than in previous years, limiting disposable income for gifts. As a result, households may increasingly rely on credit cards or buy-now, pay-later services to fund holiday purchases.

Why Spending May Still Hold Strong
Despite these headwinds, analysts remain optimistic about holiday sales. The concept of “retail therapy” may play a role, as households use spending to cope with persistent uncertainty. Historical patterns suggest that even during periods of economic unease, consumers continue to indulge in holiday shopping to maintain a sense of normalcy and celebration.

Forecast and Outlook
Overall, a 3.5%-4.0% rise in holiday sales is expected, slightly below the long-term average. Tariffs and inflationary pressures may curb spending, but resilient consumer behavior should still support a solid holiday season.

Note: This year’s report comes amid a federal government shutdown, which has delayed the release of September retail sales data. Analysts plan to fine-tune the forecast as updated information becomes available.