‘City Killer’ Asteroid 2024 YR4: Near-Zero Chance of Hitting Earth

According to the latest reports, Asteroid 2024 YR4, initially dubbed a "city killer" due to its potential size and proximity, is unlikely to strike Earth after all.

Discovered on December 27, 2024, the asteroid is classified as an Apollo-type near-Earth object, meaning its orbit intersects Earth's path. It will be closely monitored until it disappears from view from mid-April this year till 2028.

Astronomers are tracking 2024 YR4 with the help of the James Webb Space Telescope—the largest and most powerful telescope ever launched into space. NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) has observed that the asteroid’s size ranges from 40 meters (131 feet) to 90 meters (295 feet) in diameter. At 197 feet, it is roughly the height of a 15-story building. NASA and the European Space Agency released the photos — showing the asteroid as a fuzzy dot.

Initial estimates suggested a 3.1% chance of the asteroid striking Earth on December 22, 2032. However, the probability has now decreased to nearly zero, with NASA assessing the risk as very low.

Updated analyses indicate a 3.8% chance of the asteroid impacting the Moon on the same date. While this remains a low probability, scientists are continuing to monitor the situation.

In the unlikely event that 2024 YR4 collides with the Moon, scientists hope to use the impact as an opportunity to study crater formation in real-time. Such an impact would not affect Earth's orbit or pose a direct threat to our planet.

Despite the near-zero chance of impact on Earth, scientists remain interested in studying asteroids of this size to better understand the potential hazards they may pose to Earth. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is the smallest object targeted by the James Webb Space Telescope to date and one of the smallest to have its size directly measured.