US Holiday Retail Sales 2025: Weakest Growth in Years, Predicts Deloitte Report

Holiday retail sales in the United States are expected to see their weakest growth since the pandemic, according to the latest forecast from Deloitte. The consulting firm projects sales to rise by only 2.9 to 3.4 percent during the key November to January shopping season. This is a notable slowdown compared to the 4.2 percent growth recorded last year. Total sales are expected to touch between 1.61 trillion and 1.62 trillion dollars, up from 1.57 trillion dollars in 2024.

One bright spot in the forecast is e-commerce. Online sales are expected to increase by 7 to 9 percent, continuing the strong momentum from last year. In contrast, growth in physical store sales is expected to slow sharply, rising by only around 2 percent compared to a 3.4 percent increase in the previous season.

The report highlights several reasons behind the muted outlook. Persistent inflation, global trade uncertainties, and shifting consumer confidence are making households more cautious about spending. Some consumers may even bring forward purchases in anticipation of possible tariff-driven price hikes.

Not all forecasts are aligned. While Deloitte paints a picture of modest growth, major retailers like Walmart and Macy’s have expressed optimism, raising their holiday season outlooks. At the same time, other companies such as Mattel have lowered their expectations, reflecting uneven trends across different sectors of the retail landscape.

Consumer surveys add another layer of concern. A recent study points to younger shoppers, especially those from Generation Z, pulling back on discretionary purchases and gift spending. This suggests that value-driven shopping and careful budgeting could define the 2025 holiday season.

Overall, the outlook for this year’s holiday shopping season is shaped by caution rather than exuberance. Retailers may need to rely more heavily on discounts, online strategies, and targeted promotions to capture consumer attention in what could be one of the most restrained holiday periods in recent memory.