India Exit Poll Predictions Went Wrong 5 Times: Here Are Instances
Hyderabad: Most exits polls on Sunday predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance is likely to secure a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha elections. The exit polls were released after seven phases of the 17th Lok Sabha election which concluded yesterday. Results will come out on May 23.
The exit polls predicted that the BJP is likely to lose seats this time, but its coalition will have enough to cross the majority mark of 272. In 2014, it managed alone 282 seats. The ruling party's main opposition Congress will gain in its tally but will fall short of the numbers that are needed to form the government.
However, poll analysts believe that this cannot be the sole parameter to judge a party's win as in the past it has shown that exit polls have gone wrong. Not just in India, across the world too, the latest being the example of Australia election.
Also Read: Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls 2019: Who’s Predicting What?
Let's have a look at the past instances where exit polls went wrong.
UP Assembly Elections 2017
It was just months after demonetisation. The ruling Samajwadi Party had come in alliance with the Congress to contest against the Modi juggernaut. Most exit polls had predicted a hung assembly. But the BJP came out with a huge majority winning over 300 seats, a mark above the exit polls. In fact, the party made a quantum leap and got 265 seats more in 2017 compared to 47 in 2012.
Bihar Assembly Elections 2015
This was the year of the 'mahagathbandhan'. To beat the formidable BJP, the arch-rivals Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal stitched an alliance along with Congress. Exit polls had predicted a mixed picture with no clear majority. The results showed that the RJD-JDU-Congress got a thumping victory with Lalu Prasad’s RJD emerging as the single largest party.
Interestingly, this election saw the highest voter turnout in Bihar since the year 2000 with 56.8 per cent voter turnout.
Delhi Assembly Elections 2015
After Prime Minister Narendra Modi led NDA government came to power, Delhi was the field that would have put to test the party's one-year rule. It was when Arvind Kejriwal led AAP was gaining power. Exit polls had predicted that AAP will win the election and just cross the halfway mark in the 70-member assembly. But the AAP won with a thumping majority and won 67 seats.
Also Read: How Opposition Leaders Lambasted Exit Poll Predictions?
2014 Lok Sabha Elections
During the election that dethroned the Congress Party, no exit polls had indicated a clear majority for the BJP, although they had predicted victory for the BJP-led NDA. Exit polls had predicted that the BJP would be short of the majority mark of 272. However, the BJP alone crossed the majority mark. Congress was reduced to 44 seats.
2004 Lok Sabha elections
Most exit polls gave a clear majority to the Atal Bihari Vajyapee-led NDA government predicting that BJP-led NDA would secure over 240 to 250 seats. But the results surprised everyone.
The Congress and its allies got 216 seats against a projection ranging from 170 to 205. The BJP managed to get 187 seats against the projections of over 240 to 250 seats. It was the year that Vajpayee dissolved the Parliament early, hoping for re-election, riding high on the victories of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
