Vijayan 3.0? The growing BJP factor in Kerala’s next Assembly election

Thiruvananthapuram, March 28 (IANS) With just over a year left for the next Kerala Assembly elections, discussions are already going on about the possibility of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan securing a third consecutive term. At the same time, the growing influence of the BJP in the state is also a topic of intense debate.

Vijayan, along with CPI(M) state secretary M.V. Govindan and other party leaders, has begun hinting at a historic third term for the Left Democratic Front (LDF). This has rejuvenated party cadres who, at one point, were doubtful due to the challenges faced by Vijayan during his second term.

While Kerala has traditionally alternated between the CPI(M)-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF, Vijayan broke this cycle by leading the Left to victory in 2021.

The BJP, which has struggled to gain a foothold in the state, made history in 2024 by winning its first-ever Lok Sabha seat from Thrissur, where actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi pushed the Congress to third place.

Despite its limited success in state elections -- winning just one Assembly seat in 2016 and none in 2021 -- the BJP has steadily increased its vote share. In 2021, it secured 12.41 per cent of the vote, finishing second in nine constituencies. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, this rose to 15.64 per cent.

The LDF had won 99 of the 140 Assembly seats in 2021 with 45.43 per cent of the vote, while the UDF secured 41 seats with 39.47 per cent. After the BJP’s breakthrough in Thrissur, the Congress accused the Left of a covert deal with the BJP to ensure Gopi’s victory. The CPI(M), however, countered by blaming Congress for helping the BJP by splitting the anti-BJP vote.

With both the Congress and CPI(M) trading accusations over alleged ties with the BJP, a political observer, speaking anonymously, pointed out that the BJP's primary rival at the national level is the Congress, not the CPI(M) in Kerala.

“The BJP’s strategy in the South is to prevent the Congress and its allies from regaining power. In Tamil Nadu, for example, talks of a BJP-AIADMK alliance are emerging. If the Congress in Kerala fails to resolve its internal conflicts, a third term for Vijayan cannot be ruled out,” said the political observer.

Now, with BJP leader and former MoS Rajeev Chandrasekhar leading the party’s Kerala unit, all eyes are on the upcoming Nilambur Assembly by-election and local body polls later this year, which could offer early signs of how the BJP’s strategy unfolds in the state.

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