2 Crore Indian workers could lose their jobs by Christmas, Warns Saurabh Mukherjea

India could be on the brink of a severe employment crisis, cautioned Saurabh Mukherjea, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Marcellus Investment Managers. He emphasized that the crisis would not stem from an economic slowdown but from the rapid adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and automation across key industries. Mukherjea warned that if policymakers fail to act swiftly, the consequences could be disastrous for the country’s workforce.

Speaking in a recent podcast, Mukherjea revealed that hiring has significantly slowed down across India’s white-collar job market. Traditional employment opportunities in sectors such as IT, banking, and media are being replaced by gig-based roles, he said.

“The full impact of this job crisis will become evident over the next two to three years,” Mukherjea predicted. “High-paying white-collar jobs will disappear, and India will transform into a massive gig economy.”

He clarified that this transition is not the result of an economic downturn but a structural shift driven by companies aiming to cut costs and increase productivity through AI integration. “Many firms will replace a portion of their workforce with AI systems — including banks, IT companies, and media houses. Even in advertising, AI is rapidly becoming the new model,” he added.

Rising Household Debt and Global Risks

Mukherjea also raised concerns about the mounting household debt burden, which he believes could further strain the Indian economy. “Household debt now accounts for around 33–34% of total income in India, posing a significant risk to financial stability,” he noted.

Additionally, he warned about growing trade tensions with the United States. If US President Donald Trump fails to roll back tariffs on Indian exports, Mukherjea cautioned that as many as 20 million Indian workers could lose their jobs by Christmas. The hardest hit would be those earning between ₹2 to ₹5 lakh per year, particularly in export-dependent industries.

He further explained that several Indian companies, which have spent decades building global export franchises, might face major financial losses. Mukherjea expressed hope that the Indian government and the Trump administration would soon agree on a free trade pact to stabilize bilateral trade and prevent large-scale unemployment.